Coinbase’s stock price is approaching its historical peak, supported by both fundamentals and market sentiment.

Since 2024, Coinbase (stock code: COIN) has shown strong stock performance, rising over 42% year-to-date, with a current market capitalization nearing $89.6 billion, making it one of the most representative publicly traded cryptocurrency companies in the world. Recently, it also refreshed its 52-week high, just about 2% away from the historical closing high of $357.39 set in November 2021. Driven by the continuous rise in Bitcoin prices, a more positive regulatory environment in the United States, and stable growth in platform revenue, COIN’s stock price continues to benefit.

Transaction fees serve as operational leverage, driving steady growth in long-term cash flow.

Coinbase views transaction fees as one of the core operating expenses of the platform, covering direct costs such as transaction matching, wallet services, and infrastructure. Although revenue is expected to double in 2024, transaction fees account for only about 14% of total revenue, maintaining a stable proportion.

This level of stability has strategic value against market fluctuations, effectively smoothing gross margins and supporting stable operating cash flows. These cash flows are not only used to maintain the platform’s basic operations but are also invested in growth projects such as derivatives market expansion, institutional business, and global spot market. The self-built Ethereum L2 network Base, intelligent matching system, fee batching mechanism, and the widespread use of USDC are all key tools for improving trading fee efficiency.

Deep cooperation with the leading stablecoin Circle

The strategic partnership between Coinbase and Circle Internet Group has also boosted its stock price. Since Coinbase acquired equity in Circle in 2023, the two companies have become closer in their business around the USDC stablecoin. Recently, Circle successfully went public under the code CRCL, with its stock price rising from $31 to over $200, further boosting market confidence in the overall stablecoin ecosystem. Circle even briefly topped the VanEck MVIS Global Digital Assets Index by weight, attracting more mainstream capital attention to the entire stablecoin sector. As the core trading platform in this ecosystem, Coinbase is undoubtedly one of the biggest beneficiaries.

Q3 Outlook and Price Prediction

Coinbase’s operating model is gradually becoming less reliant on trading volume fluctuations. Market experts estimate that if the proportion of trading fees can be maintained at around 13 - 15%, combined with the rise of BTC and the momentum of stablecoin income, Coinbase’s stock price has a chance to challenge the $400 mark within this year, with a rebound expected to exceed 130% from the April low.

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summary

As one of the few mainstream cryptocurrency platforms listed on the US stock market, Coinbase not only has brand trust and trading liquidity, but its cost control and diversified revenue sources are also gradually improving. If the price of BTC continues to rise and the macro regulatory trend remains friendly, there is a considerable chance that COIN will break its historical high in the short term and move towards 400 dollars.