Kaitou Macro Experts: Fed's interest rate cut expectations are too high, long-term US Treasury yields may maintain range-bound fluctuations.

According to reports, Kevin Thozet, a member of the Macro Investment Committee at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, stated in a report that U.S. short-term interest rates face a rising risk, and the market is overly confident about the Fed's rate cut prospects. The U.S. money market has priced in at least two rate cuts this year, reflecting market expectations that the U.S. economy and inflation will show further signs of slowing down. Thozet stated: Considering the resilience of the U.S. economy, policy uncertainty, and the persistence of inflation pressures, we believe this expectation is too high. The trend of long-term U.S. Treasury yields is more balanced. Currently, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield at 4.300% is expected to fluctuate within a range of about 50 basis points around the current level.